Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$59.49
-$26.84
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $32.82 | $32.84 | +$0.02 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.3¢ | $14.1 | — | -$14.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57¢ | $18.72 | $32.84 | +$14.12 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.5¢ | $11.79 | — | -$11.79 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $12.67 | — | -$12.67 | 46% 37996-44793 (82789) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $10.8 | $13.87 | +$3.07 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 78.2¢ | $9.99 | $12.78 | +$2.79 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $2.28 | — | -$2.28 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.2¢ | $3.76 | — | -$3.76 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
Invested
$32.82
Value
$32.84
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$11.79
Value
—
PnL
-$11.79
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$12.67
Value
—
PnL
-$12.67
Record
46%
37996-44793 (82789)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$13.87
PnL
+$3.07
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$2.79
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
$2.28
Value
—
PnL
-$2.28
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$3.76
Value
—
PnL
-$3.76
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
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