Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$199.25
$23.65
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 38.5¢ | $71.78 | $105.1 | +$33.32 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.8¢ | $31.31 | — | -$31.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.5¢ | $40.47 | $105.1 | +$64.63 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $35.56 | $29.87 | -$5.69 | 63% 51474-30294 (81768) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $16.4 | $30.63 | +$14.23 | 55% 44381-36870 (81251) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 25.8¢ | $6.32 | $24.52 | +$18.2 | 49% 77753-81199 (158952) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $3.81 | — | -$3.81 | 46% 37988-44761 (82749) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $6.21 | $9.13 | +$2.92 | 66% 124974-64321 (189295) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 58% 37525-26772 (64297) |
Invested
$71.78
Value
$105.1
PnL
+$33.32
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$35.56
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$5.69
Record
63%
51474-30294 (81768)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$30.63
PnL
+$14.23
Record
55%
44381-36870 (81251)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.32
Value
$24.52
PnL
+$18.2
Record
49%
77753-81199 (158952)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.81
Value
—
PnL
-$3.81
Record
46%
37988-44761 (82749)
Invested
$6.21
Value
$9.13
PnL
+$2.92
Record
66%
124974-64321 (189295)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
58%
37525-26772 (64297)
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