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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$221.22

Combined PnL

-$51.76

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares337
Combined PnL-$85.74
Down2 traders
Total Value$78.05
Total Shares78
Combined PnL+$33.98
Up — 85%Down — 15%
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$164.39

Value

$143.17

PnL

-$21.22

Record

51%

7108-6729 (13837)

Both legs:

Up$79.5443.2¢-$79.54
Down$84.8559.3¢+$58.32
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.33

Value

—

PnL

-$2.33

Record

62%

43648-26624 (70272)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$12.29

Value

—

PnL

-$12.29

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Down

Invested

$42.33

Value

$43.33

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

37525-26772 (64297)

pspspsps5<$100
Down

Invested

$1.74

Value

$34.72

PnL

+$32.98

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$16.4

Value

—

PnL

-$16.4

Record

55%

17546-14181 (31727)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$16.82

Value

—

PnL

-$16.82

Record

65%

22230-12205 (34435)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$11.57

Value

—

PnL

-$11.57

Record

63%

51474-30294 (81768)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.4

Value

—

PnL

-$8.4

Record

55%

44381-36870 (81251)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.6

Value

—

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

60246-43973 (104219)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.86

Value

—

PnL

-$4.86

Record

66%

111786-58127 (169913)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.2

Value

—

PnL

-$4.2

Record

66%

124974-64321 (189295)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.14

Value

—

PnL

-$4.14

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.14

Value

—

PnL

-$4.14

Record

52%

89700-84165 (173865)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x6bcbad67...7bdb42
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793253900

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$21.22

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Up — $0

-$2.33

OhioRiskManagement

CTR

Up — $0

-$12.29
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $43.33

+$1

pspspsps5

Down — $34.72

+$32.98
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

CTR

Up — $0

-$16.4
AA

aaa221

CTR

Up — $0

-$16.82

UpandDownSyndrome

CTR

Up — $0

-$11.57

MayorMamdani

CTR

Up — $0

-$8.4
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.6
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