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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$211.38
Combined PnL
-$19.21
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$14.46
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares49
Combined PnL-$33.67
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $105.53 | $111.38 | +$5.84 | 51% 7002-6680 (13682) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.4¢ | $67.32 | $111.38 | +$44.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.4¢ | $38.22 | — | -$38.22 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $47.34 | $60 | +$17.46 | 65% 22059-12128 (34187) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $43 | $40 | -$3 | 65% 124499-66595 (191094) |
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $14.75 | — | -$14.75 | 62% 118-72 (190) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $14.62 | — | -$14.62 | 52% 360-327 (687) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $4.3 | — | -$4.3 | 55% 17472-14100 (31572) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$105.53
Value
$111.38
PnL
+$5.84
Record
51%
7002-6680 (13682)
Both legs:
Up$67.3260.4¢+$44.06
Down$38.2237.4¢-$38.22
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$47.34
Value
$60
PnL
+$17.46
Record
65%
22059-12128 (34187)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$43
Value
$40
PnL
-$3
Record
65%
124499-66595 (191094)
0X
0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR<$100Invested
$14.75
Value
—
PnL
-$14.75
Record
62%
118-72 (190)
OX
oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100Invested
$14.62
Value
—
PnL
-$14.62
Record
52%
360-327 (687)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
—
PnL
-$4.3
Record
55%
17472-14100 (31572)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb35ce24f...fef753
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793247600