Solana Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $135 held · ended Oct 29

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$135.17

Combined PnL

$10.15

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 99.5¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$117.54

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$5.83

Up3 traders

Total Value$17.63

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$4.32

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 93.7¢	$28.1	$29.85	+$1.75	65% 124444-66560 (191004)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$29.26	$29.41	+$0.15	74% 102203-36340 (138543)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$20.36	$26.62	+$6.26	51% 6965-6645 (13610)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89¢	$11.32	$12.66	+$1.34	61% 94136-59204 (153340)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$10.89	$10.95	+$0.05	52% 89581-84030 (173611)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$10.94	$10.42	-$0.52	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 29.7¢	$5.33	$7.18	+$1.85	46% 37948-44658 (82606)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 72¢	$7.4	$5.09	-$2.31	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73¢	$4.38	$2.97	-$1.41	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$15.76	$0.03	+$2.98	65% 21975-12079 (34054)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$28.1

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$1.75

Record

65%

124444-66560 (191004)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$29.26

Value

$29.41

PnL

+$0.15

Record

74%

102203-36340 (138543)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$20.36

Value

$26.62

PnL

+$6.26

Record

51%

6965-6645 (13610)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$11.32

Value

$12.66

PnL

+$1.34

Record

61%

94136-59204 (153340)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

89581-84030 (173611)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$1.85

Record

46%

37948-44658 (82606)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$7.4

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$2.31

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.38

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$1.41

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$15.76

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$2.98

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.