Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$209.16
-$17.97
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $87.42 | $157.16 | +$69.74 | 51% 6935-6621 (13556) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.7¢ | $30.01 | — | -$30.01 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $57.42 | $157.16 | +$99.75 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $42.89 | — | -$42.89 | 63% 51338-30220 (81558) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $12.45 | — | -$12.45 | 65% 124408-66548 (190956) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 19.6¢ | $3.92 | $20 | +$16.08 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 14.1¢ | $2.4 | $17 | +$14.6 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $1.8 | $15 | +$13.2 | 46% 37937-44627 (82564) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $6.73 | — | -$5.92 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 66% 124759-64225 (188984) |
Invested
$87.42
Value
$157.16
PnL
+$69.74
Record
51%
6935-6621 (13556)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$42.89
Value
—
PnL
-$42.89
Record
63%
51338-30220 (81558)
Invested
$12.45
Value
—
PnL
-$12.45
Record
65%
124408-66548 (190956)
Invested
$3.92
Value
$20
PnL
+$16.08
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$17
PnL
+$14.6
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$13.2
Record
46%
37937-44627 (82564)
Invested
$6.73
Value
—
PnL
-$5.92
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
66%
124759-64225 (188984)
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