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Down
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Up
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100DownDownDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
Total Value
$271.39
Combined PnL
-$77.2
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares109
Combined PnL-$84
Up1 trader
Total Value$20
Total Shares20
Combined PnL+$6.8
Down — 75%Up — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 26.8¢ | $120.21 | $186.18 | +$65.97 | 51% 6912-6596 (13508) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.8¢ | $72.93 | — | -$72.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.4¢ | $47.28 | $186.18 | +$138.9 | |
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $77.28 | $65.21 | -$12.07 | 63% 51325-30204 (81529) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.5¢ | $42.7 | $65.21 | +$22.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $34.58 | — | -$34.58 | |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $55.73 | — | -$55.73 | 55% 44215-36703 (80918) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $14.7 | — | -$14.7 | 65% 124383-66536 (190919) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $13.56 | — | -$13.56 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $20 | +$6.8 | 64% 21886-12047 (33933) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$120.21
Value
$186.18
PnL
+$65.97
Record
51%
6912-6596 (13508)
Both legs:
Down$72.9326.8¢-$72.93
Up$47.2825.4¢+$138.9
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$77.28
Value
$65.21
PnL
-$12.07
Record
63%
51325-30204 (81529)
Both legs:
Up$42.765.5¢+$22.51
Down$34.5869.6¢-$34.58
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$55.73
Value
—
PnL
-$55.73
Record
55%
44215-36703 (80918)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
—
PnL
-$14.7
Record
65%
124383-66536 (190919)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$13.56
Value
—
PnL
-$13.56
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.8
Record
64%
21886-12047 (33933)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2eea7106...92b2a7
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793228100