Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 86%
1 arb excluded
$72.53
-$9.38
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 29.5¢ | $73.64 | $42.53 | -$31.11 | 51% 6811-6496 (13307) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.5¢ | $47.55 | — | -$47.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.3¢ | $26.09 | $42.53 | +$16.44 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $2.43 | — | -$2.43 | 63% 51208-30132 (81340) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $30 | +$13.8 | 65% 21685-11906 (33591) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $6.65 | — | -$6.65 | 49% 77576-80896 (158472) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.25 | 62% 43581-26510 (70091) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.6¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 55% 17240-13879 (31119) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 65% 124252-66451 (190703) |
Invested
$73.64
Value
$42.53
PnL
-$31.11
Record
51%
6811-6496 (13307)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.43
Value
—
PnL
-$2.43
Record
63%
51208-30132 (81340)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$13.8
Record
65%
21685-11906 (33591)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.65
Value
—
PnL
-$6.65
Record
49%
77576-80896 (158472)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
62%
43581-26510 (70091)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
55%
17240-13879 (31119)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
65%
124252-66451 (190703)
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