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Down
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Up
pspspsps5CTR<$100DownUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$176.57
Combined PnL
$19.78
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares226
Combined PnL-$2.71
Up2 traders
Total Value$104.57
Total Shares105
Combined PnL+$22.49
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.3¢ | $1.76 | — | -$1.76 | 48% 23056-25131 (48187) |
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $72.91 | $72 | -$0.91 | 49% 77558-80867 (158425) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 98¢ | $70.56 | $72 | +$1.44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 5.2¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | |
pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.95 | — | -$0.95 | 46% 37870-44464 (82334) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $52.18 | $69.57 | +$17.39 | 51% 6782-6478 (13260) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85.4¢ | $29.9 | $35 | +$5.1 | 65% 21630-11888 (33518) |
0X
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
—
PnL
-$1.76
Record
48%
23056-25131 (48187)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$72.91
Value
$72
PnL
-$0.91
Record
49%
77558-80867 (158425)
Both legs:
Up$70.5698¢+$1.44
Down$2.355.2¢-$2.35
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.95
Value
—
PnL
-$0.95
Record
46%
37870-44464 (82334)
PL
ply-pm2<$100Invested
$52.18
Value
$69.57
PnL
+$17.39
Record
51%
6782-6478 (13260)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$29.9
Value
$35
PnL
+$5.1
Record
65%
21630-11888 (33518)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1c0e4daa...769f5b
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793198400