Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$389.48
-$59.25
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $159.4 | $341.79 | +$182.38 | 51% 6701-6393 (13094) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.6¢ | $131.82 | $341.79 | +$209.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.6¢ | $27.58 | — | -$27.58 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.8¢ | $13.19 | — | -$13.19 | 63% 51064-30076 (81140) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $24.47 | — | -$24.47 | 49% 77469-80748 (158217) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $28.08 | — | -$27.91 | 65% 21441-11773 (33214) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $7.88 | — | -$7.88 | 66% 111454-57709 (169163) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 18.2¢ | $3.88 | $21.28 | +$17.4 | 57% 69604-52928 (122532) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $8.52 | — | -$8.52 | 55% 43943-36416 (80359) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $11.52 | $12.13 | +$0.61 | 61% 93726-58934 (152660) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $8.82 | $9.28 | +$0.46 | 66% 124340-64008 (188348) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $0.75 | $5 | +$4.25 | 52% 89215-83682 (172897) |
Invested
$159.4
Value
$341.79
PnL
+$182.38
Record
51%
6701-6393 (13094)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$13.19
Value
—
PnL
-$13.19
Record
63%
51064-30076 (81140)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$24.47
Value
—
PnL
-$24.47
Record
49%
77469-80748 (158217)
Invested
$28.08
Value
—
PnL
-$27.91
Record
65%
21441-11773 (33214)
Invested
$7.88
Value
—
PnL
-$7.88
Record
66%
111454-57709 (169163)
Invested
$3.88
Value
$21.28
PnL
+$17.4
Record
57%
69604-52928 (122532)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.52
Value
—
PnL
-$8.52
Record
55%
43943-36416 (80359)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$0.61
Record
61%
93726-58934 (152660)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$9.28
PnL
+$0.46
Record
66%
124340-64008 (188348)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.25
Record
52%
89215-83682 (172897)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
antsaslyku
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $21.28
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
Up — $12.13
asdaefef
Up — $9.28
dvasdkasodk
Up — $5