Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$250.16
-$93.09
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.2¢ | $98.49 | $187.04 | +$88.55 | 51% 6623-6322 (12945) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.2¢ | $65.8 | $187.04 | +$121.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.8¢ | $32.69 | — | -$32.69 | |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $52.47 | — | -$52.47 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $40.25 | — | -$40.25 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $16.29 | $25.48 | +$9.19 | 49% 77370-80568 (157938) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $21.7 | — | -$21.7 | 63% 50924-30036 (80960) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $10.24 | $22.53 | +$12.29 | 46% 37796-44311 (82107) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $3.59 | — | -$3.59 | 66% 111403-57662 (169065) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $7.23 | $10.63 | +$3.4 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $4.44 | $4.48 | +$0.04 | 74% 102066-36293 (138359) |
Invested
$98.49
Value
$187.04
PnL
+$88.55
Record
51%
6623-6322 (12945)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$52.47
Value
—
PnL
-$52.47
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
Invested
$40.25
Value
—
PnL
-$40.25
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$16.29
Value
$25.48
PnL
+$9.19
Record
49%
77370-80568 (157938)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$21.7
Value
—
PnL
-$21.7
Record
63%
50924-30036 (80960)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$10.24
Value
$22.53
PnL
+$12.29
Record
46%
37796-44311 (82107)
Invested
$3.59
Value
—
PnL
-$3.59
Record
66%
111403-57662 (169065)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$10.63
PnL
+$3.4
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$4.44
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0.04
Record
74%
102066-36293 (138359)
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