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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$195.13

Combined PnL

$24.83

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders
Total Value$147.37
Total Shares147
Combined PnL+$42.56
Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares132
Combined PnL-$17.73
Up — 44%Down — 56%
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$79.57

Value

$47.76

PnL

-$31.81

Record

51%

6564-6251 (12815)

Both legs:

Down$63.2229.7¢-$63.22
Up$16.3534.2¢+$31.41
AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$28.54

Value

$55.51

PnL

+$26.96

Record

65%

21027-11533 (32560)

MayorMamdani<$100
Up

Invested

$47.55

Value

$51.12

PnL

+$3.57

Record

55%

43829-36245 (80074)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$18.65

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$6.98

Record

65%

123874-66232 (190106)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.01

Value

—

PnL

-$4.01

Record

61%

93558-58834 (152392)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Up

Invested

$10.07

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$5.05

Record

63%

50847-30010 (80857)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.3

Value

—

PnL

-$4.3

Record

52%

89056-83535 (172591)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.02

Value

—

PnL

-$3.02

Record

66%

124150-63912 (188062)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6.25

Value

—

PnL

-$6.25

Record

56%

57449-44380 (101829)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.15

Value

—

PnL

-$0.15

Record

62%

43530-26454 (69984)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x430e6733...8c02f1
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793145900

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$31.81
AA

aaa221

Up — $55.51

+$26.96

MayorMamdani

Up — $51.12

+$3.57
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $25.63

+$6.98
AS

asidjasiodja

CTR

Down — $0

-$4.01

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $15.12

+$5.05
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$4.3
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Down — $0

-$3.02
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Down — $0

-$6.25

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.15
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