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UpDownUpUp
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$144.83
Combined PnL
-$19.57
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares58
Combined PnL-$26.58
Up2 traders
Total Value$40.44
Total Shares40
Combined PnL+$7.01
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 82.4¢ | $107.73 | $104.39 | -$3.34 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82.4¢ | $86 | $104.39 | +$18.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.9¢ | $21.73 | — | -$21.73 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.7¢ | $23.88 | — | -$23.88 | 51% 6435-6131 (12566) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 91.4¢ | $28.8 | $31.52 | +$2.72 | 65% 123689-66126 (189815) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $4.63 | $8.92 | +$4.29 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
UN
uninformedflowwARB<$100Invested
$107.73
Value
$104.39
PnL
-$3.34
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
Both legs:
Up$8682.4¢+$18.39
Down$21.7348.9¢-$21.73
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$23.88
Value
—
PnL
-$23.88
Record
51%
6435-6131 (12566)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$28.8
Value
$31.52
PnL
+$2.72
Record
65%
123689-66126 (189815)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$4.63
Value
$8.92
PnL
+$4.29
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4808b132...e5036b
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793122800