Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Down 86%
1 arb excluded
$220.47
-$74.77
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $87.8 | $210.47 | +$122.66 | 51% 6357-6072 (12429) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.5¢ | $64.17 | $210.47 | +$146.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.4¢ | $23.63 | — | -$23.63 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.1¢ | $19.09 | — | -$19.09 | 63% 50639-29898 (80537) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $43.2 | — | -$43.2 | 65% 123573-66074 (189647) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.6¢ | $3.96 | — | -$3.96 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 9.5¢ | $1.67 | $10 | +$8.33 | 62% 43457-26365 (69822) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.8¢ | $11.08 | — | -$11.08 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.3¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.3¢ | $2.38 | — | -$2.38 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
Invested
$87.8
Value
$210.47
PnL
+$122.66
Record
51%
6357-6072 (12429)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$19.09
Value
—
PnL
-$19.09
Record
63%
50639-29898 (80537)
Invested
$43.2
Value
—
PnL
-$43.2
Record
65%
123573-66074 (189647)
Invested
$3.96
Value
—
PnL
-$3.96
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$10
PnL
+$8.33
Record
62%
43457-26365 (69822)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$11.08
Value
—
PnL
-$11.08
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
Invested
$2.38
Value
—
PnL
-$2.38
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
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