Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
8
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$161.92
-$54.7
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 41.6Β’ | $47.27 | $45.21 | -$2.07 | 68% 98347-46616 (144963) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 41.6Β’ | $25.67 | β | -$25.67 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 47.8Β’ | $21.6 | $45.21 | +$23.61 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.8Β’ | $26.24 | β | -$26.24 | 51% 6312-5995 (12307) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $54.98 | $46 | -$8.98 | 65% 123475-66020 (189495) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 93.5Β’ | $48.4 | $38.71 | -$8.59 | 65% 20472-11181 (31653) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.2Β’ | $1.78 | β | -$1.78 | 46% 37642-43970 (81612) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.4Β’ | $8.66 | β | -$8.66 | 66% 111093-57313 (168406) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98.8Β’ | $15.81 | $16 | +$0.19 | 66% 123706-63693 (187399) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $15.84 | $16 | +$0.16 | 52% 88749-83182 (171931) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 5Β’ | $0.8 | β | -$0.8 | 55% 43523-35934 (79457) |
Invested
$47.27
Value
$45.21
PnL
-$2.07
Record
68%
98347-46616 (144963)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.24
Value
β
PnL
-$26.24
Record
51%
6312-5995 (12307)
Invested
$54.98
Value
$46
PnL
-$8.98
Record
65%
123475-66020 (189495)
Invested
$48.4
Value
$38.71
PnL
-$8.59
Record
65%
20472-11181 (31653)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
β
PnL
-$1.78
Record
46%
37642-43970 (81612)
Invested
$8.66
Value
β
PnL
-$8.66
Record
66%
111093-57313 (168406)
Invested
$15.81
Value
$16
PnL
+$0.19
Record
66%
123706-63693 (187399)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16
PnL
+$0.16
Record
52%
88749-83182 (171931)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
β
PnL
-$0.8
Record
55%
43523-35934 (79457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $46
aaa221
Up β $38.71

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
antsaslyku
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $16
dvasdkasodk
Up β $16

MayorMamdani
CTRDown β $0