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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$187.52

Combined PnL

-$80.1

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares499
Combined PnL-$120.8
Up3 traders
Total Value$73.06
Total Shares73
Combined PnL+$40.71
Down — 67%Up — 33%
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$64.69

Value

—

PnL

-$64.69

Record

51%

6275-5953 (12228)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$82.79

Value

$114.46

PnL

+$31.68

Record

68%

98276-46564 (144840)

Both legs:

Down$40.960.6¢-$40.9
Up$41.8936.6¢+$72.57
AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$23.5

Value

—

PnL

-$23.5

Record

65%

20395-11132 (31527)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$10.35

Value

—

PnL

-$10.35

Record

55%

43472-35889 (79361)

pspspsps5<$100
Up

Invested

$2.93

Value

$33.7

PnL

+$30.77

Record

46%

37615-43943 (81558)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$21.6

Value

$30.67

PnL

+$9.07

Record

65%

123417-65985 (189402)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$9.26

Value

—

PnL

-$9.26

Record

66%

123643-63650 (187293)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$8.09

Value

—

PnL

-$8.09

Record

55%

16944-13598 (30542)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.91

Value

—

PnL

-$4.91

Record

66%

111044-57268 (168312)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Up

Invested

$7.82

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$0.87

Record

63%

50521-29855 (80376)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x1e6b7530...04a7ca
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793081100

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$64.69
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$31.68
AA

aaa221

CTR

Down — $0

-$23.5

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$10.35

pspspsps5

Up — $33.7

+$30.77
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $30.67

+$9.07
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Down — $0

-$9.26
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

CTR

Down — $0

-$8.09
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Down — $0

-$4.91

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $8.69

+$0.87
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