Solana Up or Down - September 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 86¢ · $152 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 100%
$152.2
$15.9
78.1¢ → 85.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 89.9¢ | $64.28 | $62.19 | -$2.08 | 46% 39450-46985 (86435) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $28.12 | $41.89 | +$13.77 | 66% 100522-52543 (153065) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 86.1¢ | $29.27 | $29.07 | -$0.2 | 49% 79837-83308 (163145) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $14.64 | $19.04 | +$4.4 | 73% 95417-36061 (131478) |
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$64.28
Value
$62.19
PnL
-$2.08
Record
46%
39450-46985 (86435)
Invested
$28.12
Value
$41.89
PnL
+$13.77
Record
66%
100522-52543 (153065)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$29.27
Value
$29.07
PnL
-$0.2
Record
49%
79837-83308 (163145)
Invested
$14.64
Value
$19.04
PnL
+$4.4
Record
73%
95417-36061 (131478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.