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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 80%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$89.8
Combined PnL
-$506.78
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares529
Combined PnL-$515.98
Down1 trader
Total Value$20
Total Shares20
Combined PnL+$9.2
Up — 80%Down — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $79.5 | $69.8 | -$9.7 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $41.2 | — | -$41.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.9¢ | $38.3 | $69.8 | +$31.5 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.3¢ | $17.72 | — | -$15.39 | 54% 1563-1340 (2903) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $20 | +$9.2 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $0.49 | — | -$0.49 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 38% 650-1081 (1731) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$79.5
Value
$69.8
PnL
-$9.7
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Both legs:
Up$41.247.5¢-$41.2
Down$38.354.9¢+$31.5
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$17.72
Value
—
PnL
-$15.39
Record
54%
1563-1340 (2903)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.2
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$0.49
Value
—
PnL
-$0.49
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
650-1081 (1731)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x664ac70c...f65e67
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1794500100