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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$460.93

Combined PnL

-$402.5

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares557

Combined PnL-$539.43

Down4 traders

Total Value$431.41

Total Shares431

Combined PnL+$136.92

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.1¢	$213.9	$344.44	+$130.54	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 74¢	$115.02	$59.97	-$1.75	54% 1521-1314 (2835)
cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100	Upavg 26.6¢	$40.03	$29.52	-$10.51	47% 870-993 (1863)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.6¢	$31.64	—	-$31.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.4¢	$8.39	$29.52	+$21.13
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$15.17	—	-$15.17	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 54¢	$10.92	$12	+$1.08	52% 1296-1214 (2510)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$9.42	—	-$9.42	38% 841-1390 (2231)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$8.64	—	-$8.64	46% 1227-1428 (2655)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 53¢	$7.95	$15	+$7.05	74% 1022-354 (1376)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 41.3¢	$6.2	—	-$6.2	48% 1250-1346 (2596)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$213.9

Value

$344.44

PnL

+$130.54

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

Invested

$115.02

Value

$59.97

PnL

-$1.75

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100

Invested

$40.03

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$10.51

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

Both legs:

Up$31.6426.6¢-$31.64

Down$8.3928.4¢+$21.13

Invested

$15.17

Value

—

PnL

-$15.17

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

$12

PnL

+$1.08

Record

52%

1296-1214 (2510)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.42

Value

—

PnL

-$9.42

Record

38%

841-1390 (2231)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

—

PnL

-$8.64

Record

46%

1227-1428 (2655)

Invested

$7.95

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.05

Record

74%

1022-354 (1376)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

—

PnL

-$6.2

Record

48%

1250-1346 (2596)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6a3ced53...aff26a

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794491100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $344.44

ply-pm2

Down — $59.97

cryingbabydicer87

Arbitrage — excluded

aaa221

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $12

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $15

ohioism

Up — $0

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