Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (78%) · Up at 99¢ · $769 held · ends Nov 12

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

Total Value

$768.73

Combined PnL

-$63.1

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 98.6¢

+65% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$762.59

Total Shares799

Combined PnL+$4.47

Down2 traders

Total Value$6.14

Total Shares491

Combined PnL-$67.57

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 80.1¢	$128.51	$133.75	+$5.24	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$89.37	$51.2	-$7.25	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$53.72	$47.17	-$3.39	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 48¢	$7.2	$14.83	+$7.63	48% 1146-1235 (2381)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$9.6	$8.8	-$0.8	55% 1173-958 (2131)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 55¢	$3.8	$6.83	+$3.03	37% 778-1309 (2087)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 18.9¢	$57.61	$3.8	-$53.81	38% 578-951 (1529)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 8.6¢	$16.1	$2.34	-$13.76	51% 1610-1559 (3169)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$128.51

Value

$133.75

PnL

+$5.24

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$89.37

Value

$51.2

PnL

-$7.25

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$53.72

Value

$47.17

PnL

-$3.39

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$7.63

Record

48%

1146-1235 (2381)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

55%

1173-958 (2131)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$3.03

Record

37%

778-1309 (2087)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.61

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$53.81

Record

38%

578-951 (1529)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.1

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$13.76

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.