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UpDownDownUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100DownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$199.08
Combined PnL
-$127.89
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares194
Combined PnL-$125.01
Up1 trader
Total Value$49.8
Total Shares50
Combined PnL-$2.88
Down — 80%Up — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $181.61 | $149.28 | -$32.33 | 52% 8084-7595 (15679) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.4¢ | $83.26 | — | -$83.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.9¢ | $98.35 | $149.28 | +$50.94 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 71.3¢ | $108.2 | — | -$108.2 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.9¢ | $10.71 | — | -$10.71 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $73.4 | $49.8 | -$2.88 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $4.13 | — | -$4.13 | 63% 52240-31232 (83472) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $1.97 | — | -$1.97 | 66% 112365-59078 (171443) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$181.61
Value
$149.28
PnL
-$32.33
Record
52%
8084-7595 (15679)
Both legs:
Down$83.2642.4¢-$83.26
Up$98.3565.9¢+$50.94
UN
uninformedflowwCTRInvested
$108.2
Value
—
PnL
-$108.2
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$10.71
Value
—
PnL
-$10.71
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$73.4
Value
$49.8
PnL
-$2.88
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.13
Value
—
PnL
-$4.13
Record
63%
52240-31232 (83472)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$1.97
Value
—
PnL
-$1.97
Record
66%
112365-59078 (171443)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9a48cccb...34cfaf
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1793475000