Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$159.88
-$171.16
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 58.1¢ | $129.48 | — | -$129.48 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $140.97 | $123.9 | -$17.08 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.5¢ | $99.5 | — | -$99.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.5¢ | $41.47 | $123.9 | +$82.42 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.1¢ | $38.46 | — | -$38.46 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $15.13 | $19.83 | +$4.7 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $20.07 | — | -$20.07 | 66% 112343-59004 (171347) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $2.9 | $11.15 | +$8.25 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $5 | +$3.9 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
Invested
$129.48
Value
—
PnL
-$129.48
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Invested
$140.97
Value
$123.9
PnL
-$17.08
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.46
Value
—
PnL
-$38.46
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$15.13
Value
$19.83
PnL
+$4.7
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
Invested
$20.07
Value
—
PnL
-$20.07
Record
66%
112343-59004 (171347)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$11.15
PnL
+$8.25
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.9
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
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