Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$266.35
-$9.78
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $187.7 | $152.77 | -$34.93 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.4¢ | $106 | $152.77 | +$46.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45¢ | $81.7 | — | -$81.7 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $71.91 | $58.05 | -$13.86 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $37.75 | $55.53 | +$17.79 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.3¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.4¢ | $5.8 | — | -$5.8 | 64% 40317-23061 (63378) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $0.21 | — | -$0.21 | 66% 112335-58986 (171321) |
Invested
$187.7
Value
$152.77
PnL
-$34.93
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.91
Value
$58.05
PnL
-$13.86
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$55.53
PnL
+$17.79
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
—
PnL
-$5.8
Record
64%
40317-23061 (63378)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
Invested
$0.21
Value
—
PnL
-$0.21
Record
66%
112335-58986 (171321)
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