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DownDownDownUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$67.03
Combined PnL
-$59.22
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares94
Combined PnL-$66.5
Up1 trader
Total Value$10.27
Total Shares10
Combined PnL+$7.28
Down — 75%Up — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $72.65 | $56.77 | -$15.88 | 51% 7681-7235 (14916) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $51.32 | — | -$51.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.6¢ | $21.32 | $56.77 | +$35.44 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.7¢ | $17.6 | — | -$17.6 | 57% 71009-54091 (125100) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $56.35 | — | -$48.11 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $2.99 | $10.27 | +$7.28 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $0.79 | — | -$0.79 | 66% 112233-58692 (170925) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$72.65
Value
$56.77
PnL
-$15.88
Record
51%
7681-7235 (14916)
Both legs:
Down$51.3249¢-$51.32
Up$21.3237.6¢+$35.44
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$17.6
Value
—
PnL
-$17.6
Record
57%
71009-54091 (125100)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$56.35
Value
—
PnL
-$48.11
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$2.99
Value
$10.27
PnL
+$7.28
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.79
Value
—
PnL
-$0.79
Record
66%
112233-58692 (170925)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2d1dacb8...58d3a3
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1793386800