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DownDownUpDown
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Up
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$121.15
Combined PnL
-$13.98
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares60
Combined PnL-$36.83
Up2 traders
Total Value$49.71
Total Shares50
Combined PnL+$22.85
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 43.8¢ | $76.12 | $71.43 | -$4.69 | 51% 7452-7030 (14482) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.8¢ | $49.05 | — | -$49.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.9¢ | $27.08 | $71.43 | +$44.36 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $40.31 | — | -$35.53 | 64% 22926-12644 (35570) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $21.91 | $44.71 | +$22.8 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 63% 51801-30522 (82323) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$76.12
Value
$71.43
PnL
-$4.69
Record
51%
7452-7030 (14482)
Both legs:
Down$49.0543.8¢-$49.05
Up$27.0837.9¢+$44.36
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$40.31
Value
—
PnL
-$35.53
Record
64%
22926-12644 (35570)
0D
0x0d2d...7ff5<$100Invested
$21.91
Value
$44.71
PnL
+$22.8
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
63%
51801-30522 (82323)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc95913ae...1f4a7a
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1793340000