Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$186.71
-$83.31
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $175.78 | $161.53 | -$14.25 | 51% 7193-6839 (14032) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.7¢ | $106.18 | $161.53 | +$55.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $69.6 | — | -$69.6 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $19.61 | — | -$19.61 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $61.97 | — | -$47.14 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $10.58 | $25.18 | +$14.6 | 64% 39890-22786 (62676) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $20.99 | — | -$20.99 | 56% 57788-44629 (102417) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.2¢ | $5.68 | — | -$5.68 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $4.49 | — | -$4.49 | 66% 111894-58227 (170121) |
Invested
$175.78
Value
$161.53
PnL
-$14.25
Record
51%
7193-6839 (14032)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.61
Value
—
PnL
-$19.61
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
Invested
$61.97
Value
—
PnL
-$47.14
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
ohioism<$100Invested
$10.58
Value
$25.18
PnL
+$14.6
Record
64%
39890-22786 (62676)
Invested
$20.99
Value
—
PnL
-$20.99
Record
56%
57788-44629 (102417)
Invested
$5.68
Value
—
PnL
-$5.68
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
$4.49
Value
—
PnL
-$4.49
Record
66%
111894-58227 (170121)
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