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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$203.82
Combined PnL
-$266.19
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares628
Combined PnL-$273.81
Down2 traders
Total Value$203.82
Total Shares204
Combined PnL+$7.62
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 28.6¢ | $227.74 | — | -$227.74 | 51% 6717-6412 (13129) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 68¢ | $175.2 | $175 | -$0.2 | 57% 69652-52957 (122609) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.4¢ | $29.62 | — | -$29.62 | 66% 111485-57735 (169220) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $21 | $28.82 | +$7.82 | 65% 21488-11804 (33292) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.8¢ | $16.45 | — | -$16.45 | 52% 89240-83721 (172961) |
PL
ply-pm2CTRInvested
$227.74
Value
—
PnL
-$227.74
Record
51%
6717-6412 (13129)
UN
uninformedflowwInvested
$175.2
Value
$175
PnL
-$0.2
Record
57%
69652-52957 (122609)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$29.62
Value
—
PnL
-$29.62
Record
66%
111485-57735 (169220)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$21
Value
$28.82
PnL
+$7.82
Record
65%
21488-11804 (33292)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$16.45
Value
—
PnL
-$16.45
Record
52%
89240-83721 (172961)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5ac6a4ee...57aac3
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1793181600