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UpDownDownUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100DownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$320.13
Combined PnL
-$91.31
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares110
Combined PnL-$111.79
Up2 traders
Total Value$35.14
Total Shares35
Combined PnL+$20.47
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $244.22 | $284.99 | +$40.77 | 51% 6701-6393 (13094) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.5¢ | $71.98 | — | -$71.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.4¢ | $172.25 | $284.99 | +$112.75 | |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $47.94 | — | -$47.94 | 66% 111454-57709 (169163) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $54.3 | — | -$50.6 | 65% 21441-11773 (33214) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 25.7¢ | $6.9 | $26.88 | +$19.98 | 57% 69604-52928 (122532) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $13.25 | — | -$13.25 | 63% 51064-30076 (81140) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $7.76 | $8.26 | +$0.5 | 52% 89215-83682 (172897) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$244.22
Value
$284.99
PnL
+$40.77
Record
51%
6701-6393 (13094)
Both legs:
Down$71.9858.5¢-$71.98
Up$172.2560.4¢+$112.75
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$47.94
Value
—
PnL
-$47.94
Record
66%
111454-57709 (169163)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$54.3
Value
—
PnL
-$50.6
Record
65%
21441-11773 (33214)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$26.88
PnL
+$19.98
Record
57%
69604-52928 (122532)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$13.25
Value
—
PnL
-$13.25
Record
63%
51064-30076 (81140)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$7.76
Value
$8.26
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
89215-83682 (172897)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x785fa4bf...edac6d
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1793172600