NK Radomlje vs. Mura Murska Sobota: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 56¢ · $187 held · ended Oct 27

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$186.72

Combined PnL

$23.53

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 55.5¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$127.19

Total Shares265

Combined PnL+$23

Over2 traders

Total Value$59.53

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$0.52

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Underavg 31¢	$37.29	$55.94	+$18.65	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$53	$53.5	+$0.5	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 41.7¢	$20.81	$23.22	+$2.41	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$20	$20.87	+$0.87	64% 952-531 (1483)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 55¢	$12.22	$12.33	+$0.11	50% 24110-23737 (47847)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 53¢	$11.28	$11.49	+$0.21	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 53.3¢	$6	$6.03	+$0.02	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.58	$3.33	+$0.75	50% 32583-32122 (64705)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$37.29

Value

$55.94

PnL

+$18.65

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$20.81

Value

$23.22

PnL

+$2.41

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$0.87

Record

64%

952-531 (1483)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$12.22

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.02

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

32583-32122 (64705)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.