Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will NK Radomlje win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $59 held · ended Oct 27

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$58.76

Combined PnL

-$50.79

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$35.32

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$7.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.44

Total Shares276

Combined PnL-$58.04

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$17.6	$22.97	+$5.37	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$60	$17	-$43	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$10.47	$12.35	+$1.88	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$13.47	$4.17	-$9.3	50% 24110-23737 (47847)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$8.01	$2.27	-$5.74	50% 11942-12092 (24034)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$5.37

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$17

PnL

-$43

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$10.47

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$1.88

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$9.3

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.01

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$5.74

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.