Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mura Murska Sobota win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 29¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 43%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$9.8
55.5¢ → 29¢
-48% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $824.32 | $593.42 | -$230.9 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 70¢ | $621.25 | $377.19 | -$244.06 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54¢ | $203.07 | $216.23 | +$13.16 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 30.7¢ | $459.68 | $560.55 | +$100.87 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.5¢ | $175.23 | $282.3 | +$107.07 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 30.7¢ | $284.45 | $278.25 | -$6.2 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 56.8¢ | $150.04 | $138.61 | +$1.44 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 56.8¢ | $129.14 | $130.74 | +$1.59 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.6¢ | $35.77 | $43.2 | +$7.43 | 67% 23026-11429 (34455) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 67.6¢ | $14.17 | $14.53 | +$0.36 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $8.04 | $8.52 | +$0.48 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $5.4 | $5.22 | -$0.18 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $2.13 | -$1.33 | 54% 6000-5088 (11088) |
Invested
$824.32
Value
$593.42
PnL
-$230.9
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Both legs:
Invested
$459.68
Value
$560.55
PnL
+$100.87
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$150.04
Value
$138.61
PnL
+$1.44
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$129.14
Value
$130.74
PnL
+$1.59
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
Invested
$35.77
Value
$43.2
PnL
+$7.43
Record
67%
23026-11429 (34455)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.17
Value
$14.53
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$8.52
PnL
+$0.48
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.22
PnL
-$0.18
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$1.33
Record
54%
6000-5088 (11088)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.