Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Olimpija Ljubljana win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $278 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$278.36
$5.28
35.9¢ → 8.5¢
-76% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $142 | $135 | -$2 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $49.58 | $48.99 | -$0.59 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $36.8 | $48.24 | +$11.44 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $39.2 | $39.2 | +$0 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $8.57 | $5 | -$3.57 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $1.19 | $1.14 | -$0.05 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.75 | $0.8 | +$0.05 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$142
Value
$135
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$49.58
Value
$48.99
PnL
-$0.59
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$48.24
PnL
+$11.44
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$39.2
Value
$39.2
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
$5
PnL
-$3.57
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.