Will NK Maribor win on 2026-10-27?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.1K
$711.88
74.4¢ → 97.8¢
+31% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 60¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$624.67 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 77.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$306.37 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.8¢ | $874.63 | $874.21 | -$0.43 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $297.47 | $78.01 | -$219.46 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $1.63 | $1.74 | +$0.11 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $1.04 | $1.55 | +$0.51 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RN1Invested
$1,014.35
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$624.67
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$1,208.32
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$306.37
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$874.63
Value
$874.21
PnL
-$0.43
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$297.47
Value
$78.01
PnL
-$219.46
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.51
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.