Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
NK Brinje Grosuplje vs. Bravo Ljubljana: O/U 0.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 50¢ · $889 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$889.43
$555.38
15.8¢ → 50¢
+216% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 15.8¢ | $260.18 | $822.06 | +$561.88 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $42.77 | $39.48 | -$3.29 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $11.89 | $8.04 | -$3.86 | 47% 4505-4983 (9488) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $2.72 | $7.55 | +$4.84 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $11.24 | $7.3 | -$3.94 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $5.25 | $5 | -$0.25 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
Invested
$260.18
Value
$822.06
PnL
+$561.88
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$42.77
Value
$39.48
PnL
-$3.29
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$8.04
PnL
-$3.86
Record
47%
4505-4983 (9488)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$4.84
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
poshposh<$100Invested
$11.24
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$3.94
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.