Will NK Brinje Grosuplje win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $77 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$77.34
-$16.79
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $74.34 | $57.25 | -$17.09 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.03 | $13.28 | +$2.24 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $5.3 | -$1.6 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $1.86 | $1.51 | -$0.34 | 54% 6137-5210 (11347) |
Invested
$74.34
Value
$57.25
PnL
-$17.09
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
poshposh<$100Invested
$11.03
Value
$13.28
PnL
+$2.24
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$1.6
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.51
PnL
-$0.34
Record
54%
6137-5210 (11347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.