Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Bravo Ljubljana win on 2026-10-29?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 50¢ · $432 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$432.19
$7.01
63.4¢ → 50¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 62¢ | $252 | $264 | +$15.9 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $98.51 | $78.63 | -$19.88 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 66.9¢ | $32.84 | $33.24 | +$0.4 | 51% 5927-5605 (11532) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $25.67 | $25.1 | -$0.57 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $5.78 | $15.63 | +$9.84 | 67% 23213-11610 (34823) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $9.5 | $10.62 | +$1.13 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $2.5 | +$0.85 | 54% 6137-5210 (11347) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $3.13 | $2.48 | -$0.65 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$252
Value
$264
PnL
+$15.9
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$98.51
Value
$78.63
PnL
-$19.88
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$32.84
Value
$33.24
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
5927-5605 (11532)
poshposh<$100Invested
$25.67
Value
$25.1
PnL
-$0.57
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
Invested
$5.78
Value
$15.63
PnL
+$9.84
Record
67%
23213-11610 (34823)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$10.62
PnL
+$1.13
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.85
Record
54%
6137-5210 (11347)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.13
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.65
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.