Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (72%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Aluminij Kidricevo vs. NK Radomlje: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 28¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$2.7K
-$0.01
50.8¢ → 28¢
-45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 50.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$29.09 | 51% 1684-1648 (3332) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 49¢ | $113.72 | $118.37 | +$3.48 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $82 | $83.64 | +$0 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 50.1¢ | $67.82 | $76.81 | +$29.39 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Underavg 50.2¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 | 58% 5852-4293 (10145) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $24.49 | $20.81 | -$2.24 | 55% 1746-1439 (3185) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $1.67 | $0.99 | -$0.68 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.83 | $0.96 | -$0.86 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
us391CTRInvested
$2,420.98
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$29.09
Record
51%
1684-1648 (3332)
HRTradingInvested
$113.72
Value
$118.37
PnL
+$3.48
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$82
Value
$83.64
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$67.82
Value
$76.81
PnL
+$29.39
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$35
Value
$35
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
5852-4293 (10145)
Invested
$24.49
Value
$20.81
PnL
-$2.24
Record
55%
1746-1439 (3185)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.83
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.86
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.