Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$420.85

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 76.5¢

+37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,626

Combined PnL+$436.72

No6 traders

Total Value$186.51

Total Shares583

Combined PnL-$15.87

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

608h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 57.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$412	55% 18-15 (33)
Optimus-	Yesavg 49.2¢	$286	$383.32	+$24.72	61% 1236-788 (2024)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$14.45	$54.4	+$39.95	53% 23842-20976 (44818)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$55.69	$40.5	-$15.19	40% 6592-9939 (16531)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 47.5¢	$179.26	$32.01	-$8.46	13% 551-3657 (4208)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 46¢	$249.19	$26.56	-$25.03	17% 1362-6612 (7974)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$43.14	$24.64	-$6.97	24% 798-2569 (3367)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$35.58	$8.41	-$0.18	17% 397-1989 (2386)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$1,183.33

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$412

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$286

Value

$383.32

PnL

+$24.72

Record

61%

1236-788 (2024)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$14.45

Value

$54.4

PnL

+$39.95

Record

53%

23842-20976 (44818)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$55.69

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$15.19

Record

40%

6592-9939 (16531)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$179.26

Value

$32.01

PnL

-$8.46

Record

13%

551-3657 (4208)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$249.19

Value

$26.56

PnL

-$25.03

Record

17%

1362-6612 (7974)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$43.14

Value

$24.64

PnL

-$6.97

Record

24%

798-2569 (3367)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$35.58

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$0.18

Record

17%

397-1989 (2386)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

608h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.