Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Potenza Calcio win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 1.4¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$238.6

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 1.4¢

-98% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$646.63

Total Shares798

Combined PnL+$354.52

No2 traders

Total Value$515.1

Total Shares441

Combined PnL-$115.92

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 28¢	$146.65	$517.49	+$370.84	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 79.5¢	$611.02	$514.75	-$96.27	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$26.13	$54.98	+$28.85	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 54.9¢	$128.28	$50.58	-$58.21	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$10.54	$23.58	+$13.04	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$20	$0.35	-$19.65	63% 1209-696 (1905)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$146.65

Value

$517.49

PnL

+$370.84

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$611.02

Value

$514.75

PnL

-$96.27

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.13

Value

$54.98

PnL

+$28.85

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$128.28

Value

$50.58

PnL

-$58.21

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.54

Value

$23.58

PnL

+$13.04

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$19.65

Record

63%

1209-696 (1905)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3872.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

3972.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.