Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Latina Calcio win on 2026-11-13?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 44¢ · $626 held · ends Nov 13

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$626.06

Combined PnL

$6.36

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 44¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$283.45

Total Shares649

Combined PnL+$26.04

No6 traders

Total Value$342.61

Total Shares609

Combined PnL-$19.68

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 39.6¢	$219.7	$243.86	+$24.16	6% 17-277 (294)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 59¢	$195.1	$185.32	-$9.78	56% 309-246 (555)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 60¢	$96.6	$90.4	-$6.2	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$37.71	$39.6	+$1.89	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 58¢	$37.61	$35.66	-$1.95	35% 750-1386 (2136)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 58¢	$17.4	$16.8	-$0.6	53% 1030-921 (1951)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.35	$11.14	-$1.21	34% 736-1405 (2141)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 55¢	$3.23	$3.29	+$0.06	26% 250-705 (955)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.7

Value

$243.86

PnL

+$24.16

Record

17-277 (294)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$195.1

Value

$185.32

PnL

-$9.78

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$96.6

Value

$90.4

PnL

-$6.2

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.71

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$1.89

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$37.61

Value

$35.66

PnL

-$1.95

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$12.35

Value

$11.14

PnL

-$1.21

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.06

Record

26%

250-705 (955)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.