Inter Milano U23 vs. Scafatese Calcio 1922: O/U 4.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$111.67

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 92.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,667

Combined PnL+$116.19

Over3 traders

Total Value$12.39

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$4.52

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 79.1¢	$839.27	$969.87	+$130.61	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 91.8¢	$568.75	$554.24	-$14.51	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 93.3¢	$12.13	$12.22	+$0.09	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 21.9¢	$12.87	$8.83	-$4.04	50% 11938-12086 (24024)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 17.1¢	$3.89	$3.21	-$0.68	54% 2558-2193 (4751)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.35	+$0.2	54% 55318-47360 (102678)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$839.27

Value

$969.87

PnL

+$130.61

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$568.75

Value

$554.24

PnL

-$14.51

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$12.13

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$0.09

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.87

Value

$8.83

PnL

-$4.04

Record

50%

11938-12086 (24024)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.68

Record

54%

2558-2193 (4751)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.