Inter Milano U23 vs. Scafatese Calcio 1922: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$77.08
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 68.5¢ | $961.7 | $1.2K | +$188.79 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 21.3¢ | $120.97 | $102.55 | -$18.42 | 59% 44247-30614 (74861) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21.3¢ | $82.81 | $69.95 | -$12.86 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 96¢ | $38.16 | $32.6 | -$5.56 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 46.6¢ | $233 | $90 | -$143 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $69.46 | $27.18 | +$28.69 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $3.24 | $2.91 | -$0.32 | 59% 29921-20647 (50568) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $0.18 | $1.6 | +$1.42 | 60% 9086-6001 (15087) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $5.88 | $0.01 | +$1.5 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
Invested
$961.7
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$188.79
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$120.97
Value
$102.55
PnL
-$18.42
Record
59%
44247-30614 (74861)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$233
Value
$90
PnL
-$143
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Invested
$69.46
Value
$27.18
PnL
+$28.69
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$2.91
PnL
-$0.32
Record
59%
29921-20647 (50568)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$1.6
PnL
+$1.42
Record
60%
9086-6001 (15087)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.88
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$1.5
Record
54%
2558-2193 (4751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.