Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

AS Gubbio vs. Vis Pesaro 1898: O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$9.08

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 47¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,235

Combined PnL-$4.55

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,235

Combined PnL+$13.63

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$4.64	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$45.94	47% 2571-2857 (5428)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$844.63	$831.05	-$13.58	58% 10631-7605 (18236)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$788.28	$774.61	-$13.67	48% 8915-9527 (18442)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$231.31	$229.95	-$1.36	57% 29212-21600 (50812)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$168.68	$167.26	-$5.81	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.6¢	$117.68	$116.26	-$5.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$51	$51	+$0
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$109.15	$105.45	-$3.7	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.65	+$0.13	53% 5577-5013 (10590)
us391<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.1	-$0.03	51% 1710-1674 (3384)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,245.22

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$4.64

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,421.84

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45.94

Record

47%

2571-2857 (5428)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$844.63

Value

$831.05

PnL

-$13.58

Record

58%

10631-7605 (18236)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$788.28

Value

$774.61

PnL

-$13.67

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$231.31

Value

$229.95

PnL

-$1.36

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$168.68

Value

$167.26

PnL

-$5.81

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

Both legs:

Under$117.6853.6¢-$5.81

Over$5147¢+$0

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$109.15

Value

$105.45

PnL

-$3.7

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

us391<$100

Under

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

1710-1674 (3384)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.