Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Union Brescia win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 3.4¢ · $140 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$140.12
-$306.03
41.4¢ → 3.4¢
-92% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $89.44 | $47.84 | -$52 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $47.39 | $45.41 | -$1.97 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $281.16 | $24 | -$257.16 | 51% 1711-1674 (3385) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $13.57 | $22.2 | +$8.63 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $4.38 | $0.67 | -$3.52 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
Invested
$89.44
Value
$47.84
PnL
-$52
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$47.39
Value
$45.41
PnL
-$1.97
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
us391CTRInvested
$281.16
Value
$24
PnL
-$257.16
Record
51%
1711-1674 (3385)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.57
Value
$22.2
PnL
+$8.63
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$3.52
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.