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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Cavese 1919 vs. AZ Picerno: O/U 2.5

Resolved Over. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Under 50%

Total Value

$311.35

Combined PnL

-$41.88

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$309.35

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$185.92

Under4 traders

Total Value$2

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$227.81

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 34.1¢	$92.2	$261.98	+$169.79	50% 25353-25122 (50475)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 54¢	$45.52	$42.37	-$3.15	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$5	+$2.75	50% 19294-19658 (38952)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$3.18	$2	-$1.18	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 47¢	$221.18	—	-$221.18	59% 30541-21260 (51801)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$16.64	—	+$15.72	55% 8337-6722 (15059)
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$61.04	—	+$14.56	77% 3369-1026 (4395)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Overavg 99¢	$88.94	—	+$0.81	85% 5446-951 (6397)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$20	—	-$20	63% 1153-664 (1817)

Invested

$92.2

Value

$261.98

PnL

+$169.79

Record

50%

25353-25122 (50475)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$45.52

Value

$42.37

PnL

-$3.15

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

50%

19294-19658 (38952)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$2

PnL

-$1.18

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Invested

$221.18

Value

—

PnL

-$221.18

Record

59%

30541-21260 (51801)

Invested

$16.64

Value

—

PnL

+$15.72

Record

55%

8337-6722 (15059)

Vampiro1CTR<$100

Invested

$61.04

Value

—

PnL

+$14.56

Record

77%

3369-1026 (4395)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$88.94

Value

—

PnL

+$0.81

Record

85%

5446-951 (6397)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

—

PnL

-$20

Record

63%

1153-664 (1817)

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcd8f27eb...3efd54

Slug

serc-cav-azp-2026-10-31-total-2pt5

Traders in this Market

GoalLineGhost

Over — $261.98

topdogbigboi

Over — $42.37

omnibus-076daa

Over — $5

HRTrading

Under — $2

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under — $0

User7429

Over — $0

Vampiro1

Under — $0

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Over — $0

Rocko33

Under — $0

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