Will Atalanta BC U23 vs. ASD Pineto Calcio end in a draw?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$2.2K
$30.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$34.12 | 56% 92-72 (164) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.1¢ | $8.79 | $8.4 | -$0.39 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.2¢ | $9.47 | $5.98 | -$3.48 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $4.1 | $4.1 | +$0 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.6¢ | $2.07 | $2.6 | +$0.53 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$2,121.74
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$34.12
Record
56%
92-72 (164)
Invested
$8.79
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.39
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$9.47
Value
$5.98
PnL
-$3.48
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.53
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.