Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Calcio Lecco 1912 win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 10.0¢ · $102 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
$102.11
-$142.53
19.7¢ → 10¢
-49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.1¢ | $48.11 | $78.68 | +$30.57 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47.1¢ | $196.86 | $14.28 | -$177.88 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.9¢ | $5.81 | $8.43 | +$2.61 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $10.34 | $0.72 | +$2.17 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$48.11
Value
$78.68
PnL
+$30.57
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$196.86
Value
$14.28
PnL
-$177.88
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.81
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$2.61
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.34
Value
$0.72
PnL
+$2.17
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.