Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Venezia FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.32

Smart Money Entry

27.7¢ → 28.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$554.33

Total Shares1,980

Combined PnL-$0.26

No1 trader

Total Value$18.22

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$384.21	$397.41	+$5.19	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$216.27	$228.28	+$4
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$167.95	$169.13	+$1.18
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$350.28	$363.26	+$6.49	53% 16941-15068 (32009)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$253.86	$284.54	+$9.56	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$157.19	$165.92	+$8.73
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$117.79	$118.62	+$0.83
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$154.22	$148.86	-$5.36	51% 1640-1550 (3190)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$25.65	$24.76	-$0.89	49% 1540-1624 (3164)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$18.66	$18.22	-$0.06	58% 47054-33937 (80991)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$15.59	$15.05	-$0.54	50% 1585-1603 (3188)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.31	$2.4	+$0.04	50% 26091-25752 (51843)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$384.21

Value

$397.41

PnL

+$5.19

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

Both legs:

Invested

$350.28

Value

$363.26

PnL

+$6.49

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$253.86

Value

$284.54

PnL

+$9.56

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

Both legs:

Invested

$154.22

Value

$148.86

PnL

-$5.36

Record

51%

1640-1550 (3190)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.65

Value

$24.76

PnL

-$0.89

Record

49%

1540-1624 (3164)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$18.66

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

47054-33937 (80991)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.59

Value

$15.05

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

1585-1603 (3188)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

26091-25752 (51843)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.