Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 5.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$203.19

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 99.6¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,534

Combined PnL+$83.5

Over1 trader

Total Value$127.33

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$119.69

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 96¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$95.66	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 96.1¢	$718.93	$740.89	+$21.96	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92.9¢	$259.45	$270.37	+$10.93	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 3¢	$7.64	$127.33	+$119.69	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 91¢	$100	$54.95	-$45.05	50% 10545-10397 (20942)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,312.54

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$95.66

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$718.93

Value

$740.89

PnL

+$21.96

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$259.45

Value

$270.37

PnL

+$10.93

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$7.64

Value

$127.33

PnL

+$119.69

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$54.95

PnL

-$45.05

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.