Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
$116.28
91.3¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95¢ | $5.6K | $5.7K | +$123.84 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 79.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$53.89 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $445.76 | $662.59 | +$216.83 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 88¢ | $342.86 | $360.78 | +$17.92 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 2.5¢ | $102.9 | $301.81 | +$198.91 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 70¢ | $151.18 | $215.43 | +$52.91 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 72¢ | $189 | $187.69 | -$1.31 | 56% 6915-5530 (12445) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 99¢ | $91.08 | $89.29 | -$1.79 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 73.1¢ | $11.02 | $15.05 | +$4.03 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $12.67 | $14.19 | +$1.52 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $9.87 | $0.84 | -$9.03 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
Invested
$5,605.26
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$123.84
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$1,056.07
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$53.89
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$445.76
Value
$662.59
PnL
+$216.83
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$151.18
Value
$215.43
PnL
+$52.91
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
0xheavy888Invested
$189
Value
$187.69
PnL
-$1.31
Record
56%
6915-5530 (12445)
Invested
$91.08
Value
$89.29
PnL
-$1.79
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.02
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$4.03
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$14.19
PnL
+$1.52
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$9.87
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$9.03
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.